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Reviewing Matchweek 5 and Permutations Ahead of All-Important Matchweek 6

Updated: Dec 11, 2018

Matchweek 5 in the Champions League offered a new type of drama. Round five of fixtures is the first time teams will begin to solidify their positions in the next round. Some teams afforded themselves a buffer so now they can rest players if they so choose on the final matchday. Some teams who entered the group stage with a goal of Europa League qualification have already achieved that and a couple find themselves still in with a shout to advance in this competition. In this blog I will go group by group explaining what has already been decided and what is still up for grabs going into the final matchweek.


Group A

Advanced: Atletico Madrid (ESP), Borussia Dortmund (GER)

Europa League: Club Brugge (BEL)

Eliminated: AS Monaco (FRA)


Christian Pulisic and company could not break down Brugge's defense in matchweek 5

The biggest winners from matchday 5 have to be the Belgian side. Brugge held Dortmund to a nil-nil draw in Germany and solidified their position in the Europa League, which realistically had to be their goal at the beginning of the competition. With this draw, Dortmund and Atletico simultaneously advanced to the R16. Atletico's handling of Monaco means the Spanish side is in the driver's seat to win the group going into matchday 6. Dortmund's only chance to win the group is to defeat Monaco on the final day and hope that Brugge can take points off of Atletico. If Atletico and Brugge play to a draw, Dortmund will take the top spot due to their superior head-to-head goal difference against Atletico.


Group B

Group Winners: FC Barcelona (ESP)

Eliminated: PSV Eindhoven (NED)



There is still a lot to be decided going into the final matchday in Group B. Barcelona's win away at Eindhoven secured them the top spot in the group for the 12th straight season while crushing any chances of the Dutch side transferring to the Europa League. It was a cagey affair at Wembley in which Spurs knew they must win to keep their chances of advancement alive. And win they did; although they left it late. It was substitute Christian Eriksen who acted as Spurs' savior after great work down the right hand side by often-underrated Moussa Sissoko and a clever assist by Dele Alli. This left Tottenham and Internazionale even on 7 points going into the final day.

The circumstances for how Spurs can advance over Inter Milan are all but simple. If Spurs match the result of Milan then they advance, that part is simple. The tough part is that Tottenham must travel to Barcelona while Inter Milan host already-eliminated PSV. However, Barca having already won the group may look to rest some of their biggest names. It is also hard to predict what type of side Eindhoven will put out, but I'm sure they'll look to have their say on the final day and play the spoiler role.

Spurs own the 2nd spot due to head-to-head away goals, which is the 4th tie-breaker. Spurs own this advantage because they lost 2-1 in Milan on matchday 1, while they were able to keep the clean sheet at Wembley in matchweek 5. It will surely be interesting to watch both matches develop simultaneously on matchday 6.


Group C:

Group C is still far and away the most wide open group going into the final day. Right now Napoli sits atop the group with 9 points and still hasn't lost in the CL this season (2W 3D). Paris St-Germain sits in 2nd still 8 points, and Liverpool sit in the 3rd with 6 points. Two of these three teams will qualify for the R16, but the top three could still finish in any order.

PSG captured a massive home victory against Liverpool 2-1 in matchweek 5, a match that saw defenders Marquinhos and Thiago Silva celebrate earning a goal kick off of star striker Mohamed Salah's foot like they had a just scored a goal. The passion at the final whistle from all the PSG players showed that they felt they had just gotten a massive result. Napoli handled Red Star 3-1.


PSG knows they have put themselves in a great position to advance

Red Star Belgrade sits in 4th with 4 points, but they could still finish 3rd, but only if Liverpool lose. If Liverpool draw and Red Star win, they would finish even on points but Liverpool possesses a superior away goal total.

The match-ups are as follows:

-Liverpool hosts Napoli

-Red Star Belgrade hosts PSG

The scenarios in this group are almost impossible to explain. If Napoli win, they will win the group. Napoli will also advance with a draw or if PSG lose. If they lose to Liverpool, and PSG beat Red Star, they could see themselves drop to 3rd and not advance.

PSG's destiny is in their own hands. If they win, they will advance. They will also advance if Liverpool fail to beat Napoli at home. Paris will win the group if they defeat Red Star and the other match ends in a draw or if Liverpool win.


Liverpool lost all three of their away fixtures in the Champions League for the first time in the club's history

Liverpool, with the help of their fans, has made Anfield a fortress in the CL. Can they get the result they need in matchweek 6 against Napoli?

Liverpool's situation is the most unique and has the most facets to it. Simply put, Liverpool must win to have any chance of advancing. If PSG win their match, Liverpool must win by a scoreline of 1-0 or by two goals or more to advance. At that point, a one-goal victory would not be enough to see the English side through. If Paris draw at Red Star and Liverpool defeat Napoli, all three sides would finish on 9 points. In this situation, Liverpool would win the group on a three-way tiebreaker and the second place team would be determined by the scoreline in the Liverpool-Napoli match.

If PSG lose to Red Star and Liverpool defeat Napoli, both Liverpool and Napoli will advance, and the group winner would depend on the scoreline in the Liverpool-Napoli match.

Did you follow all that?


Group D:

Group Winner: FC Porto (POR)

Runner-up: Schalke 04 (GER)

After Group C, this group seems like a walk in the park. Porto will win the group and Schalke will accompany them into the R16 as a 2nd place team. It's all about whether Galatasaray or Lokomotiv Moskva will earn the Europa League spot.

Lokomotiv finally showed some life in the CL, although it may be too little too late

Galatasaray host Porto while Lokomotiv must travel to Schalke. In order to jump the Turkish side, Lokomotiv must win and hope that Galatasaray do not. Lokomotiv do have a little something going for them, being that Porto have not lost all season and the Russian side finally showed some signs of life when they beat Galatasaray last time out to keep their Europa League hopes alive. If Galatasaray lose and Lokomotiv draw, Galatasaray will still get 3rd due to a superior head-to-head goal difference.


Group E:

Advanced: Bayern Munich (GER), AFC Ajax (NED)

Europa League: SL Benfica (POR)

Eliminated: AEK Athens (GRE)

Ajax qualified for the R16 for the first time since 2005 with their win over AEK Athens

Everyone already knows their fate for the most part in Group E. Champions League regulars Bayern as well as surprise squad Ajax will both find themselves in the pot for the R16 draw, the question is, which team will be in the group winners pot and which team will be in the runners-up pot.

The impetus will be on the Dutch side as the two top teams face each other in the Netherlands. Bayern will know that a draw is good enough for the top spot, while Ajax will need to win the match if they want to top the group.


Group F:

Advanced: Manchester City (ENG)

This group is intriguing because every single team can still finish in a different position than they currently sit in. Simply put, this means each team still has something to play for going into matchday 6.

City sit on 10 points, Lyon on 7, Shakhtar on 5, and Hoffenheim on 3.

Manchester City, who host Hoffenheim, will clinch the top spot with a win or a draw. The big match of the day will take place in the Ukraine, where Shakhtar and Lyon will battle for the second spot in the R16.

Shakhtar know that with a win they will go through. If they fail to win, they will most likely finish in the Europa League qualification spot. Shakhtar will finish dead bottom if they lose and Hoffenheim beat Man City.

Shakhtar made Champions League history by becoming the first Ukrainian team to win in Germany. Taison's 90+2' winner gives the side an opportunity to advance to the R16 on the final day

Maxwel Cornet scored a double in Lyon's 2-2 draw with Manchester City

The most interesting situation is that of French side Lyon. They epitomize having their destiny in their own hands. If they lose, they will finish 3rd and not advance. If they draw, they will secure 2nd place and a spot in the R16. If they win the match, they will advance for sure and possibly even secure 1st place in the group if Man City lose. The French side possesses a superior head-to-head record against City after handing them a shock loss on matchweek 1 and securing the draw in matchweek 5.


Group G:

Group Winners: Real Madrid (ESP)

Runners-Up: AS Roma (ITA)

This group is pretty cut and dry. Three time defending champions Real Madrid secured the first spot in the group last time out when they beat Roma on their home turf. Roma will finish second.

Plzen put their Europa League destiny in their own hands with a come-from-behind victory of CSKA

Viktoria Plzen did themselves a massive favor last time out when they came from behind to beat CSKA in Moscow. Now, thanks to a superior head-to-head record, Plzen will earn a spot in the Europa league unless CSKA can better their result. The Czech side will host Roma while the Russians will have to play in Madrid. It must be said this it would be a massive disappointment for Moscow to go out of all forms of European football after beating Real Madrid on their home turf earlier in the group stage.


Group H:

Advanced: Juventus FC (ITA), Manchester United (ENG)

Europa League: Valencia (ESP)

Eliminated: BSC Young Boys (SUI)


There was late, late drama in matchweek 5 when both Juventus and Manchester United clinched a spot in the CL knockout stage. It was Jose Mourinho's side that left it late at home against a resolute Young Boys team. It took a massive save from David De Gea on a deflected shot to keep them in the match, and it was none other than Marouane Fellaini who found the net in the first minute of stoppage time to propel the English side into the R16. Jose Mourinho's reaction is truly priceless.

Juventus will likely win the group. They can achieve this either by defeating Young Boys in Switzerland or if United fail to beat Valencia in Spain. The only way United win the group is if they win their match and Juventus fail to do so.


With all of that said, I will sum it all up below:


At a glance


Through to the R16: Ajax, Atletico, Barcelona*, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Juventus, Manchester City, Manchester United, Porto*, Real Madrid*, Roma, Schalke 04

—* symbolize teams that have already clinched the top spot in their group


Can still advance: Inter Milan, Liverpool, Lyon, Napoli, PSG, Shakhtar, Spurs

—Seven teams are still fighting for four spots

—Two of the four spots are in group C


Will play in Europa League: Benfica, Club Brugge, Valencia


Can still qualify for Europa League: CSKA Moscow, Galatasaray, Hoffenheim, Lokomotiv Moskva, Red Star Belgrade, Viktoria Plzen


Will finish 4th: AEK Athens, PSV Eindhoven, AS Monaco, BSC Young Boys



I took into consideration the teams' current form and what they needed to do going into matchweek 5 in order to give themselves a shot at advancing. Take a look below at my predictions compared to the actual results.


Group A:

Actual Scores My Predicted Scores

Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Club Brugge Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Club Brugge

Atletico Madrid 2-0 AS Monaco Atletico Madrid 2-1 AS Monaco


Group B:

PSV Eindhoven 1-2 Barcelona PSV Eindhoven 1-3 Barcelona

Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Internazionale Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Internazionale


Group C:

Paris St-Germain 2-1 Liverpool Paris St-Germain 2-3 Liverpool

SSC Napoli 3-1 Red Star Belgrade SSC Napoli 1-1 Red Star Belgrade


Group D:

FC Porto 3-1 Schalke 04 FC Porto 2-2 Schalke 04

Lokomotiv Moscow 2-0 Galatasaray Lokomotiv Moscow 1-2 Galatasaray


Group E:

AEK Athens 0-2 AFC Ajax AEK Athens 1-3 AFC Ajax

Bayern Munich 5-1 SL Benfica Bayern Munch 2-1 SL Benfica


Group F:

Olympique Lyonnais 2-2 Manchester City Olympique Lyonnais 2-3 Manchester City

1899 TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Shakhtar Donetsk 1899 TSG Hoffenheim 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk


Group G:

CSKA Moscow 1-2 Viktoria Plzen CSKA Moscow 3-1 Viktoria Plzen

AS Roma 0-2 Real Madrid AS Roma 2-2 Real Madrid


Group H:

Manchester United 1-0 BSC Young Boys Manchester United 3-0 BSC Young Boys

Juventus FC 1-0 Valencia CF Juventus FC 2-1 Valencia CF


(Home teams are listed first)


I just think its comical how I literally predicted Group F exactly opposite of what happened. A 2-2 draw and a 2-3 away win simply inverted. It almost takes more skill to do that than to get predictions spot on.


By the numbers


Matchweek 5

Total number of matches: 16


Correct Result and Correct Score: 0

Correct Result but Wrong Score: 6

Completely Wrong: 10


Another bad week. After going 50% in matchweek 4, I have come back to Earth. This actually matches my worst tally from matchweek 3. But when Lokomotiv Moskva actually win in the CL, it's a sign that my predictions will be terrible.


Correct Result but Barely Missed Score:

Atletico / Monaco

PSV Eindhoven / Barcelona


Miserably Wrong:

Borussia Dortmund / Club Brugge

Lokomotiv Moskva / Galatasaray SK

CSKA Moscow / Viktoria Plzen



Total thus far (keeping in mind I didn't make predictions for matchweek 1)

Total number of matches: 64

Correct Result and Correct Score: 3

Correct Result but Wrong Score: 27

Completely Wrong: 34


Another tough week has me drop back under 50%. Let's see if I can salvage a 50% mark with one week of matches left. You can catch my predictions for matchweek 6 on my next Champions League blog post.


 

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