How to 'Finish' Domestic Leagues in Lieu of COVID-19 Pandemic?
- angelo_petruccy
- Apr 29, 2020
- 8 min read
As I discussed in my earlier column, sports around the world have effectively been halted due to the COVID-19 outbreak. As leagues sit at a stand-still with no timetable for return, the question must be asked: How will we bring the current domestic seasons to a close?
Most leagues in the United States have not been forced to look ahead to potential conclusions yet because of how they are scheduled and formatted. The the NHL and NBA seasons were somewhat far along--both were able to complete slightly over half of their regular season games. Both of these leagues, however, have playoff systems that include more than half of the total teams in the league (eight from each conference, 16 overall). The playoffs would normally be beginning right around now, and usually last into mid/late June.
The beginning of the MLB season has been postponed before any games have been played. The MLS season had just begun, and has been halted after must two matchweeks. While questions of how players, team officials and staff should be compensated are still pressing, these leagues are exempt from the difficult question of how to "conclude" their season.
When it comes to European football leagues, however, the question has become very pressing. Most domestic leagues would normally conclude in May.
Most of these leagues are formatted in a manner where each match "means the same;" i.e. the same amount of points can be taken from each match. There are no "playoffs to crown a winner;" whoever finishes with the most points at the end of the season wins the league.
But champions are not the only thing that needs deciding. While it goes without saying, there is an immense amount of money in European football. Qualification to the significant European competitions--the UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League--must also be decided.
Movement between divisions is an integral part of European leagues as well. The bottom-finishing team(s) each season are relegated, while the top-finish teams in the lower divisions are promoted. This makes a massive difference in regards to the financial situation of a club. Needless to say, everyone wants to be playing in the top tier.
So how should the season be adjudicated? Many suggestions have been given. Some of them are listed below:
—Deem the current table as final. All teams yield the rewards, or consequences, of their current position when the league was halted.
—Void the season entirely. No trophy is handed out, no champion is crowned. All teams remain in their current divisions. No promotion or relegation.
—Analyze the table at the midway point in the season. Most major European league see each team play every other team twice, once at home and once away. Taking the table at the midway point offers results after each team had played each other once.
—Analyze the table based on a "points per game" formula. At this point in the season, it's likely that teams have played a different amount of matches, due to scheduling conflicts with other competitions. This solution would "average" teams that have played more or less matches. If this framework is used, the table would likely look different than the current one.
I'll be the first to admit: There is no perfect solution. Our current reality is unprecedented, and we are tasked with finding plausible solutions.
Let's take a look at how leagues and governing bodies around Europe have approached the situation thus far.
While most leagues have not made decisions yet, the Belgian Pro League has ruled that the season is over, and has elected to take the current table as final. The decision, coming during the first week of April, made Belgium the first European League to formally announce its season as over.
The Board of Directors unanimously voted to award current leaders Club Brugge as champions of the Belgian First Division A.
However, the Belgian First Division A is formatted differently than many top leagues in Europe, so this likely played into the decision-making process. (A whole column could be written regarding the formatting of the Belgian football pyramid. Here is a link that explains it pretty well).
The league contains 16 teams. Teams play 30 matches in the "regular season," each team home and away, and then the table is split. The top six clubs contest a play-off in order to crown a champion as well as award European qualification spots.
At the time of interruption, there was only one match remaining in the "regular season." Club Brugge was an impressive 15 points clear of second-placed Gent.
The fact that the season was nearly over likely pointed the governing body toward this decision. Furthermore, the fact that Brugge had essentially run away with the league undoubtably made the decision to crown them champions exponentially easier. If the race for the title had set to come down to the final matchweek, I'm confident the decision would not have come as quickly.
Last place Waasland-Beveren have been relegated to the Belgian First Division B. They had accrued 20 points from 29 matches, and sat 2 points from safety. Thus, they would have still had a chance to survive if the final matchweek was played. A bit harsh, but times are tough.
It remains to be seen whether UEFA will honor Club Brugge's spot in the Champions League proper next season, and it remains unclear how the Belgian federation's remaining qualification spots will be awarded.
Last week, UEFA issued a statement addressing the uncertainty surrounding qualification for next year's European campaigns. The statement established that domestic leagues will not have their qualification spots rescinded if they decide to cancel the remainder of the season. UEFA put the onus on the leagues, saying that they would be responsible for deciding who would be awarded these spots. In the statement, UEFA referred to "sporting merit" as a plausible way to assign these spots, which many believe indicates the "points per game" formula.
This is important for leagues like Belgium that usual conduct playoffs to assign these spots. The Dutch Eredivisie and Scottish Premier League are examples of other leagues formatted this way.
Just yesterday, news came out of France that Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has deemed all sporting events, even those to be played behind closed doors, unsafe. On the back of that observation, Philippe has banned all sporting events through June 30, thus ending any efforts to complete this year's Ligue 1 season. This is the first of Europe's "Big Five" leagues to announce a cancellation.
While the French top division's Board of Directors is yet to meet, reports point to the fact that they are considering three possible options for to determine this season's final Ligue 1 table: 1) finalize the current table, 2 ) take the table after R19 (halfway) as final, or 3) utilize the points per game formula.
While no decision will come easy, the Board of Directors do have a couple things working in its favor here. The first is that the finishing order of the top 4 would be the same regardless of which system is chosen. The second is that the same three teams would finish in the bottom three and be relegated (although 18th place would normally play in a relegation playoff with the third-place finisher from Ligue 2). Fifth and sixth place are only positions up for debate. While fifth and sixth place in Ligue 1 do not yield an automatic European berth, due to the way results shake out throughout other leagues as well as in the domestic cup competition, fifth place usually gains a Europa league berth, and sixth place sometimes does.
While the potential results in Ligue 1 turned out to be fairly consistent, it won't be that cut and dry for other major leagues in Europe. Take the Italian Serie A for example. Juventus have accumulated 63 points in 26 games, while Lazio have accrued 62 in 26. When it comes to relegation, a total of 3 points separate 14th through 18th place.
In the English Premier League, Liverpool have opened up a 25-point gap between themselves and second place Manchester City. If one were to apply any of the three possible solutions being considered in France, Liverpool would be would remain top in all three circumstances. However, when it comes to relegation, things get much more hairy.
West Ham United, Watford and Bournemouth each sit on 27 points, Aston Villa sit on 25 and Norwich City sit on 21. Right now, Bournemouth would join Villa and Norwich in relegation only because Watford's goal difference is superior by one goal. This would be an extremely harsh way to relegate a team.
If the league were to conclude after the fully-planned 38 games, however unlucky it may be, the full season was played. But when these teams played their 26th or 27th game respectively, they had no idea it could be the final game of their season. To be relegated like this would be heart-wrenching, and I highly doubt it would be accepted by the team's board, staff or players.
If we were to apply the "sporting merit" formula, it doesn't get much easier. There would still be nothing to separate West Ham, Watford and Bournemouth, as shown to the right.
We are in a unique time, which could call for a unique solution.
In the English second tier, the top two finishers earn automatic promotion, while teams finishing third through sixth compete in a playoff for the final promotion spot.
The English FA could elect to relegate Aston Villa and Norwich while voiding the third relegation spot. They could in turn bring up the two teams that "would have earned automatic promotion, and abandon the playoff for this season.
Another possible alternative is to create a larger playoff between teams that could have potentially been relegated and teams that could have possibly been promoted.
There are a number of ways that this could look. To me, the most realistic way to administer this would be to take the three Premier League teams that are currently tied on 27 points (.93 points per game) and the teams ranked 3rd through 5th in the Championship.
This would be harsh on the 6th place Championship team but, as we know, there is no perfect solution. Another alternative could be to conduct only a four team playoff with the three Premier League sides and the 3rd place Championship side.
No matter what decision is made, someone will be unhappy. But what is the best solution?
To me, the season cannot be voided. Teams, players and coaches have worked too hard to put their respective sides in positions to achieve goals; whether that be winning the league, qualifying for European competition, retaining their spot in the top flight or earning promotion to the top league in their federation.
In my mind, the most fair way to adjudicate the tables is to use the "sporting merit" system. UEFA, the governing body of all European football leagues, said they would honor this system when it comes to European qualification. Thus, leagues can utilize it to order their tables as well.
Then, once the table is ordered, each individual county's Football Association can deal with the difficult issue of sorting out promotion and relegation. As we know, it's a massive issue, and one that cannot be understated. The difference in television revenue, advertising and ticket sales between the top tier and the second tier is millions, and in some cases, hundreds of millions of dollars.
For me, the single most important aspect of the final decision is that there is unity across the board. A united front.
I would assert that officials from all of the leagues in Europe should be in communication right now, figuring out a plan in case leagues cannot be completed due to the pandemic. One that is consistent and uniform.
Whether leagues decide to make the current tables final, make use of the sporting merit system or find some other solution, I believe all leagues across Europe should utilize the same formula when deciding how to order their tables for the 2019-2020 season.
While no solution is perfect and it will be impossible for everyone to be left perfectly happy, if there is consistency across UEFA, it will be difficult to argue. Once the tables are ordered in the same manner, individual FAs have the right to sort out specificities that come with finishing positions in the league. UEFA has stated this.
The only completely fair way to finalize the tables would be to put the players out on the pitch and play the matches. But as we know, due to this global health crisis, it's looking continuously less likely that this will happen.
Although it's less than fair, I would purpose that the solution outlined above is the best and most plausible, considering all options. And plausibility is what we should strive for during this uncertain time.
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