The Champions League is returning once again, and this time there is a lot on the line. Technically there is always a lot on the line when teams step onto the pitch for a CL tie, but in this round of fixtures, team can start booking their tickets to the next round.
In this blog post I will go group by group and explain the circumstances surrounding each fixture, what results would mean for each team, etc.
Group A
1. Borussia Dortmund: 9 pts, +6 GD
2. Atletico Madrid: 9 pts, +1 GD
3. Club Brugge: 4 pts, +1 GD
4. AS Monaco: 1 pt, -8 GD
Atletico v. Monaco, Dortmund v Club Brugge
Dortmund and Atletico wasted no time jumping out to an early lead in this group and showing that they are contenders not only to advance but also to potentially make a deep run in this tournament. With each team hosting in Matchweek 5, look for each team to secure three points and potentially run up the goal difference. If both Dortmund and Atletico win, they will secure advancement. A draw could be enough depending on the opposite result. If Club Brugge were to somehow pull off a shock and defeat Dortmund, then things would come down to the final, although that is unlikely.
Group B
1. Barcelona: 10 pts, +8 GD
2. Inter Milan: 7 pts, 0 GD
3. Tottenham Hotspur: 4 pts, -2 GD
4. PSV Eindhoven: 1 pt, -6 GD
PSV Eindhoven v. Barcalona, Tottenham v. Inter Milan
Barcelona is in a great spot in this group. A win will be enough to go through, since Spurs and Inter will have to take points off each other in some manner. This Spurs and Inter matchup is massive. Tottenham, who appeared to be dead in the water before their last fixture, now have an opportunity to go even on points with Inter. It is essentially a must win. If they draw, Spurs will mathematically still be alive but it would take a miracle at that point. If Spurs win, both teams will be on 7 points going into the final day. Barcelona hosts Tottenham on the final day, while Inter hosts PSV. These match-ups obviously favor Inter, so for Spurs to have any chance, they must beat Inter at home in matchweek 5.
Group C
1. Napoli: 6 pts, +1 GD
2. Liverpool: 6 pts, +2 GD
3. PSG: 5 pts, +4 GD
4. Red Star Belgrade: 4 pts, -7 GD
PSG v. Liverpool, Napoli v. Red Star Belgrade
Wow, this group is too close to call. Although its already been said, many people thought Napoli, Liverpool and PSG would be fighting for two spots before the Group Stage kicked off, but Red Star Belgrade has come out of nowhere to make themselves a factor and thus throw this group into utter chaos. Liverpool will have to go into Paris and look to get a result after failing to do so in Serbia. The Serbian side has picked up 4 unlikely points thus far, but all these points have come at home; whereas in this round of matches, they are tasked with going on the road to Napoli. Belgrade did hold Napoli to a nil-nil draw in matchweek 1. With all of that said, and with how tight this group currently is, much could be decided once these matches are said and done. If Liverpool go into Paris and win, and Napoli win at home, both of those teams would clinch a spot in the R16. Any other combination of results would leave things still to be decided. Red Star Belgrade realistically need at least a draw to keep hope of advancing alive; although there is a very specific set of circumstances that could see them lose in matchweek 5 and still have a slim chance of advancing come matchweek 6.
Group D
FC Porto: 10 pts, +6 GD
Schalke 04: 8 pts, +3 GD
Galatasaray: 4 pts, 0 GD
Lokomotiv Moskva: 0 pts, -9 GD
Lokomotiv Moskva v. Galatasaray, Porto v. Schalke 04
Despite the utter brutality of Lokomotiv Moscow, this group still leaves a lot to be decided. Actually, Lokomotiv's inability to win a match makes this group more interesting going into matchweek 5. The group's two top teams — Porto and Schalke — are pitted against each other. A victory for Porto sees them through to the next round as group winners. However, a victory for sees them through but they cannot clinch the top spot in the group in this round of games. Either way, this is a massive opportunity for Galatasaray. They must take care of business against Lokomotiv, who will undoubtably be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they try to prove they belong in the CL even though their previous results say otherwise. If Galatasaray get the result, they will have a chance to advance going into the final day, no matter what. The top 3 in this group is still completely up for grabs.
Group E
1. Bayern Munich: 10 pts, +6 GD
2. Ajax: 8 pts, +4 GD
3. Benfica: 4 pts, -2 GD
4. AEK Athens: 0 pts, -8 GD
AEK Athens v. Ajax, Bayern Munich v. Benfica
Bayern have pretty much already clinched a spot in the round of R16. Ajax, through their impressive performances in each of the first four matchweeks, have put themselves in a great position. Many would expect Bayern to defeat Benfica, and if this happens Ajax would clinch advancement even if they falter against Athens. If Ajax can win, worst case scenario they push the challenge for the top spot in the group to the final matchday. Benfica will know they must win the next two matches to have any hope, so they will be pushing full out against Bayern. It is possible that Benfica take points off of Bayern, and if that happens, its a great opportunity for Ajax to hop Bayern and possess the top spot in the group going into matchweek 6.
Group F
1. Manchester City: 9 pts, +9 GD
2. Olympique Lyonnais: 6 pts, +1 GD
3. Hoffenheim: 3 pts, -2 GD
4. Shakhtar Donetsk: 2 pts, -9 GD
Hoffenheim v. Shakhtar Donetsk, Olympique Lyon v. Manchester City
All to play for here. The two teams listed first will feel desperately that they need three points to have any hope of advancing come the final day. Lyon have been one of the positively shocking teams in the tournament. They were able to defeat Manchester City in Manchester in matchweek 1, but since then they have only managed three draws. Lyon has produced some of the most entertaining football in the competition, as they have scored more than one goal in all four of their matches to date. City have pretty much already advanced, although mathematically they have not gone through yet. A win against Lyon wins them the group. A draw will all but do it. If Lyon can pull out a win at home, that makes it extremely interesting going into the final day. Hoffenheim and Shakhtar are probably hoping for City to win, and then those two teams will each look to win and then compete with Lyon for the runner-up spot on the final day of the group.
Group G
1. Real Madrid: 9 pts, +8 GD
2. AS Roma: 9 pts, +6 GD
3. CSKA Moscow: 4 pts, -3 GD
4. Viktoria Plzen: 1 pt, -11 GD
CSKA v. Viktoria Plzen, Roma v. Real Madrid
This group is getting pretty close to being decided. When CSKA upset Real Madrid in matchweek 1, it really opened the door for some craziness in this group. However, CSKA then proceeded to have three underwhelming performances, losing twice to Roma and only drawing Plzen. Even is Moscow could have beaten Plzen, they would be in with a shut right now. Instead, they sit on 4 points. They must beat Plzen, and then defeat Real Madrid (again) on matchday 6 to have any hope of advancing in the runner-up spot. Real Madrid and Roma will go to battle for the top spot in the group. Real Madrid may play a little more conseratively, for they possess the head-to-head tiebreaker and are on the road in this fixture. With that said, it is not in Real Madrid's DNA to let their foot off the gas against any team, even when they are struggling a bit. This one will be a good one, no doubt.
Group H
1. Juventus FC: 9 pts, +5 GD
2. Manchester United: 7 pts, +3 GD
3. Valencia CF: 5 pts, 0 GD
4. BSC Young Boys: 1 pt, -8 GD
Manchester United v. BSC Young Boys, Juventus FC v. Valencia
This group is really still up for grabs as well. Although Juventus looked extremely solid throughout the first three groups games—so solid in fact that they hadn't conceded a single goal and were good enough for first in my mid-group stage power rankings—their collapse at home in the final minutes against Man U has brought them back down to Earth. Now Juventus must play against a hungry Valencia side that knows they need a result in order to hang onto any hope of advancing. In the other match, Manchester United get to play host to Young Boys. Although Young Boys will certainly look to play spoiler, its no secret that they don't really have the quality to cause many problems. If both Juventus and Man U win, they will both clinch a spot in the next round, while the top spot and runner-up spot will still be up for grabs going into matchweek 6.
So that is the situation going into the next round of games. The main incentive that everyone is fighting for is the ability to advance. However, one should not underestimate the importance of advancing as a group winner or a group runner-up. Furthermore, many forget that 3rd place offers qualification into the Europa League knockout stage. The Europa League is a formidable competition, and entree into it at a stage where there are only 32 teams remaining can be an advantage. Winning the Europa League does offer a berth into next year's Champions League proper (Group Stage).
Below I will attempt to pick this weeks match-ups. With so much on the line, chances are there will be some crazy matches. This could make it even more difficult to predict.
Matchday 5 Predictions
Tuesday, 12:55 PM Kickoffs
AEK Athens 1-3 AFC Ajax
CSKA Moscow 3-1 Viktoria Plzen
Tuesday, 3 PM Kickoffs
AS Roma 2-2 Real Madrid
Olympique Lyonnais 2-3 Manchester City
Juventus 2-1 Valencia CF
Manchester United 3-0 BSC Young Boys
Bayern Munich 2-1 SL Benfica
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk FC
Wednesday, 12:55 PM Kickoffs
Lokomotiv Moskva 1-2 Galatasaray SK
Atletico Madrid 2-1 AS Monaco
Wednesday, 3 PM Kickoffs
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Club Brugge
Paris Saint-Germain 2-3 Liverpool FC
SSC Napoli 1-1 Red Star Belgrade
PSV Eindhoven 1-3 FC Barcelona
FC Porto 2-2 FC Schalke 04
Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Inter Milan
(Home teams are listed first)
Season totals thus far:
Correct Result and Correct Score: 3
Correct Result but Wrong Score: 21
Completely Wrong: 24
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